Slaves to Rationalism

The Guardian newspaper yesterday published an article claiming that two mathematicians have adapted a financial formula to predict that England will "maul" Spain in the World Cup final this year. This is frankly ridiculous; the idea that a formula can 'predict' the outcome of a sporting tournament that has not even begun yet is fantastical at best and harrowing at worst. While it is entirely possible, and indeed it is hoped, that the mathematicians in question were just having some fun, there is a possibility that their venture was entirely serious and based on a desire to rationalise everything, including future sporting events. This is where the prediction becomes harrowing, as it reinforces society's dependence upon rationality.

This fascination with rationalism is not a new phenomenon. Hans J. Morgenthau's book Scientific Man vs Power Politics (1947) charts the development of rationalism in society through the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. In the case of the World Cup, the mere attempt to mathematically predict the outcome is ludicrous; it is highly doubftul that the formula used was able to take into account ability, tactics, the weather, the morale of the players, injuries, form and numerous other factors. However, the predicition is sympotmatic of attempts to rationalise society and societal interactions, to place science in a social environment and accept the results without question.

If there is an accident in the workplace, for example, health and safety officers are called out to investigate. The rationale behind this is the idea that accidents only happen when something does not work as it is 'supposed' to, thus accidents are preventable providing everything works perfectly all the time. This approach is commendable, however people are not rational, they are not perfect; conflict and irrational thinking are unfortunately integral to human nature. Nevertheless, society is determined to instill a scientific rationale of perfection, which has led to an obsession with health and safety. If an accident occurs, there not only has to be a reason but there has to be something which can be improved or changed to prevent such an event from occuring in the future. Now, health and safety is important and of course, everything must be done to prevent accidents from happening but the fact of the matter is they do happen. The ambition to eradicate accidents from life is, unfortunately, doomed to failure because as mentioned above, people are irrational. However many times people might be told to climb a ladder or a cliff in a certain manner, someone will inevitably decide to do it different. There might be a reason, there might not be. The notion of the whim is not to be derided, it has arguably led to a variety of inventions and developments which have characterised contemporary society. Trying to eradicate irrational thinking threatens to remove what separates humans from machines: independent thought.

Of course, if England do go on to win the World Cup and thrash Spain in the process, there will be no complaints from this author. However, it would not change the fact that a mathematical prediction made 21 days before the tournament began was yet another reminder of the ludicrous reliance on rationalism that has infected society.